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不确定驱动性内卷：社会环境、社会管理、个体不确定敏感性与心理健康跨层次理论框架. (2026). 环球社科评论, 3(5), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.62836/ssr.v3n5.1506
Copyright (c) 2026 杨廷忠, 章伟芳, 蒋姝函, 彭嗣惠
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
不确定驱动性内卷：社会环境、社会管理、个体不确定敏感性与心理健康跨层次理论框架
杨廷忠1,2,3*，章伟芳4，蒋姝函5，彭嗣惠6
1. 浙江大学社会医学系，浙江杭州；
2. 美国西弗吉尼亚大学伤害研究中心，美国摩根城；
3. 俄罗斯 M.V. Lomonosov 社会与基础研究院，俄罗斯莫斯科；
4. 浙江大学医学院附属儿童医院，浙江杭州；
5. 浙江中医药大学人文与管理学院，浙江杭州；
6. 暨南大学基础医学与公共卫生学院，广东广州
摘要：近年来，以过度投入、同质化竞争和边际收益递减为特征的非理性竞争在我国社会生活中日益凸显，并在中国语境下被广泛称为“内卷”。然而，现有研究更多关注内卷的表现及其后果，对这种竞争形态为何形成，特别是其背后的不确定性驱动机制，仍缺乏系统解释。本研究旨在构建并初步检验内卷的形成机制。首先，从内卷的基本属性、结构特征和现实表现出发，系统梳理相关社会与行为理论，构建由社会环境不确定性、社会管理不确定性和个体不确定性共同组成的跨层次不确定性理论框架，在此基础上提出“不确定性—内卷—心理压力—心理障碍”作用模型。实证结果显示，社会环境不确定性、社会管理不确定性和个体不确定性能够构成总体不确定性构念；总体不确定性显著促进内卷形成，内卷进一步加重个体心理压力并增加心理障碍风险。同时，本研究开发的社会生活内卷量表、职场内卷量表和大学生学业内卷量表均表现出良好的信度与效度。本研究填补了内卷形成机制系统研究的文献空白，初步揭示了内卷由社会环境、社会管理和个体因素共同作用而形成的跨层次过程及其心理健康效应，为进一步理解内卷、开展人群识别与真实世界评价，以及制定针对性的社会管理和干预措施奠定了理论与实证基础。
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[3] 杨廷忠.健康研究:社会与行为理论及方法[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2025.
[4] Festinger, L. (1954) A Theory of Social Comparison Processes. Human Relations, 7, 117-140.
[5] Chen, B.H.Y., Zhou, Y. and Yang, L. (2024) The Role of Involution in Chinese Youth’s Pursuit of Postgraduate Education Abroad: An Examination through the Lens of Normative Social Behaviour. Asia Pacific Journal of Education, 1-14.
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[7] Yin, J., Ji, Y. and Ni, Y. (2023) Does “Nei Juan” Affect “Tang Ping” for Hotel Employees? The Moderating Effect of Effort–Reward Imbalance. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 109, 103421.
[8] Yang, T. and Peng, S. (2026) Research on Constructing of Uncertainty Belief Behavior Theory. Social Science Research Frontiers, 2, 15-24.
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[11] Beck, U. (1992) Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA.
[12] Carleton, R.N. (2016) Fear of the Unknown: One Fear to Rule Them All? Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 41, 5-21.
[13] Wu, D., Yu, L., Yang, T., Cottrell, R., Peng, S., Guo, W. and Jiang, S. (2020) The Impacts of Uncertainty Stress on Mental Disorders of Chinese College Students: Evidence from a Nationwide Study. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 243.
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[15] McEvoy, P.M. and Mahoney, A.E.J. (2012) To Be Sure, to Be Sure: Intolerance of Uncertainty Mediates Symptoms of Various Anxiety Disorders and Depression. Behavior Therapy, 43, 533-545.
[16] Greco, V. and Roger, D. (2003) Uncertainty, Stress, and Health. Personality and Individual Differences, 34, 1057-1068.
[17] Mishel, M.H. (1988) Uncertainty in Illness. Image: The Journal of Nursing Scholarship, 20, 225-232.
[18] Peng, S., Yang, X.Y., Yang, T., Zhang, W. and Cottrell, R.R. (2021) Uncertainty Stress and Its Impact on Disease Fear and Prevention Behavior during the COVID-19 Epidemic in China: A Panel Study. American Journal of Health Behavior, 45, 334–341.
[19] Peters, A., McEwen, B.S. and Friston, K. (2017) Uncertainty and Stress: Why It Causes Diseases and How It Is Mastered by the Brain. Progress in Neurobiology, 156, 164-188.
[20] Yang, T., Yang, X.Y., Yu, L., Cottrell, R.R. and Jiang, S. (2017) Individual and Regional Association between Socioeconomic Status and Uncertainty Stress, and Life Stress: A Representative Nationwide Study of China. International Journal for Equity in Health, 16, 118.
[21] North, D.C. (1990) Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[22] Hobfoll, S.E. (1989) Conservation of Resources: A New Attempt at Conceptualizing Stress. American Psychologist, 44, 513-524.
[23] Jiang, L., Fang, L., Xu, Y., Zhang, Q., Dai, S., Tian, J., Wu, W., Fang, Y., Zhang, M. and Yu, H. (2025) How Does Emotional Exhaustion among Chinese College Students Affect Mental Health? A Mixed-Methods Study in Zhejiang, China. Frontiers in Public Health, 13, 1669092.
[24] Green, F. (2004) Why Has Work Effort Become More Intense? Industrial Relations, 43, 709-741.
[25] Zhang, W., Pan, C., Yao, S., et al. (2024) “Neijuan” in China: The Psychological Concept and Its Characteristic Dimensions. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 56, 107-123.
[26] Dou, G., Li, G., Yuan, Y., et al. (2022) Structural Dimension Exploration and Measurement Scale Development of Employee Involution in China’s Workplace Field. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19, 14454.
[27] Yi, D., Wu, J., Zhang, M., et al. (2022) Does Involution Cause Anxiety? An Empirical Study from Chinese Universities. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19, 9826.
[28] Wang, F., Yang, Y. and Cui, T. (2024) Development and Validation of an Academic Involution Scale for College Students in China. Psychology in the Schools, 61, 847-860.
[29] Yang, Y., Peng, Y., Li, W., Lu, S., Wang, C., Chen, S. and Zhong, J. (2023) Psychometric Evaluation of the Academic Involution Scale for College Students in China: An Application of Rasch Analysis. Frontiers in Psychology, 14, 1135658.
[30] Yang, L., Zhang, Y., Zhang, D., Shen, L. and Feng, H. (2025) Association between Active/Passive Involution and Lying Flat among College Students: The Mediation Role of Perceived Stress and Anxiety. BMC Public Health, 25, 1355.
[31] Lee, E.H. (2012) Review of the Psychometric Evidence of the Perceived Stress Scale. Asian Nursing Research, 6, 121-127.
[32] Yang, T.Z. and Huang, H.T. (2003) An Epidemiological Study on Stress among Urban Residents in the Social Transition
Period. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi, 24, 760-764.
[33] Yang, T.Z., Huang, L. and Wu, Z.Y. (2003) The Application of the Chinese Health Questionnaire for Mental Disorder Screening in Community Settings in Mainland China. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi, 24, 769-773.
[34] Muthén, B. O. (1984). A general structural equation model with dichotomous, ordered categorical, and continuous latent variable indicators. Psychometrika, 49(1), 115–132.
[35] Cheung, G.W., Cooper-Thomas, H.D., Lau, R.S. and Wang, L.C. (2024) Reporting Reliability, Convergent and Discriminant Validity with Structural Equation Modeling: A Review and Best-Practice Recommendations. Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 41, 745–783.
[36] Schreiber, J.B., Nora, A., Stage, F.K., Barlow, E.A. and King, J. (2006) Reporting Structural Equation Modeling and Confirmatory Factor Analysis Results: A Review. The Journal of Educational Research, 99, 323–338.
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[38] Fornell, C. and Larcker, D.F. (1981) Evaluating Structural Equation Models with Unobservable Variables and Measurement Error. Journal of Marketing Research, 18, 39- 50.
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[40] Boateng, G.O., Neilands, T.B., Frongillo, E.A., Melgar- Quiñonez, H.R. and Young, S.L. (2018) Best Practices for Developing and Validating Scales for Health, Social, and Behavioral Research: A Primer. Frontiers in Public Health, 6, 149.
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[42] Maxwell, S.E. and Cole, D.A. (2007) Bias in Cross-Sectional Analyses of Longitudinal Mediation. Psychological Methods, 12, 23-44.
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